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February 28, 2008

Looking Ahead to Early Next Week

By early next Monday and continuing into Tuesday, two storm systems will affect the area. Wth the primary low/frontal passage, it looks like some accumulating snows would be possible from Eastern Iowa, far Northeastern Missouri, Northern Illinois, Southern and Eastern Wisconsin, far Northwestern Indiana and Western and Southwestern Michigan. Could be along the line of 2-4 inches with an area of sleet or freezing rain. Across most of Indiana and Western Ohio, we will remain the warm sector and will likely showers and thunderstorms.

As the boundary pushes through the area it stalls and allows a secondary area of low pressure to ride up the boundary. The first storm and passage of the boundary will have caused a much colder airmass to move into the Midwest and Ohio Valley as a strong high pressure system slides Southeast into the North Central Plains.

It looks like the boundary will stall from about Mephis up to Cleveland with heavy rain continuing East and Southeast of the boundary with a conditional severe weather threat. To the Northwest and North of the boundary, snow develops from Northern Arkansas, Western Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Western and Northwestern Ohio and possibly into Michigan. Of course the potential will be there for some gusy winds as the system strenghens and slides Northeast.

 

February 26, 2008

Preview: Looking Ahead

While I plan on taking a few hours off this afternoon as the weather has me a little stressed out right now there is still more to talk about. I don't remember a winter where I have had to forecast major storms every few days for months. It has just been crazy and the abnormally strong La Nina has made it almost impossible to get a storm right.

But what am I watching for the future?

Significant Lake effect snow for tonight through tomorrow for Northwestern Indiana.

As far as future storms, a strong clipper is still expected to affect a large portion of Northern and Northeastern Indiana into Western Ohio by Thursday Night and Friday. Still looks like 2-3 maybe 4 inches of snowfall is possible.

A strong storm traveling through the Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday could bring another round of snow especially across the Northwestern half of the state with the Eastern and Central part of the state likely seeing rain changing to some accumulating snowfall.

Another storm by next Thursday looks to have a better chance at bringing significant snowfall to a large portion of the Ohio Valley.

Can we say bust!

Yes, I'll admit that my forecast was a "bust" especially South of a line from Lafayette to Portland to Celina, Ohio. Temperatures remained to marginal for to long and the precip for whatever reason didn't cause enough dynamical/evaporational cooling. For all of you North of a line from Lafayette to Portland, enjoy your snow as the forecast in your areas verified quite well.
 
I can say though that I had the idea right, forecasting this storm last Thursday, while no one even began talking about it until late in the day on Sunday.  
 
So now I plan on taking the afternoon off to be depressed about my wrong forecast and will be back this evening. Just a quick FYI, the pattern still looks stormy and winter is not over yet.

Latest Storm Reports

0941 AM     SNOW             OSSIAN                  40.88N  85.17W  
02/26/2008 M5.8 INCH WELLS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0700 AM     SNOW             1 SSW MILLERSBURG       41.51N  85.70W  
02/26/2008 M8.2 INCH ELKHART IN COCORAHS  
0700 AM     SNOW             2 ESE HUNTERTOWN        41.22N  85.13W  
02/26/2008 M6.0 INCH ALLEN IN COCORAHS
0700 AM     SNOW             2 SW LA PORTE           41.59N  86.74W  
02/26/2008 M5.1 INCH LA PORTE IN COCORAHS
0700 AM     SNOW             KENDALLVILLE            41.44N  85.26W  
02/26/2008 M6.5 INCH NOBLE IN COCORAHS
0700 AM     SNOW             5 E LEESBURG            41.33N  85.75W  
02/26/2008 M8.0 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN COCORAHS
 
900 AM     SNOW             ROCHESTER               41.06N  86.20W  
02/26/2008 M8.6 INCH FULTON IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0851 AM     HEAVY SNOW       LAGRANGE                41.64N  85.42W  
02/26/2008 M6.0 INCH LAGRANGE IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0700 AM     SNOW             6 ESE NORTH JUDSON      41.18N  86.67W  
02/26/2008 M7.0 INCH STARKE IN COCORAHS  

Morning Update

So far this winter storm has done quite well for areas along and North of a line from Lafayette to Marion over to Portland and points Northward.

I know a lot of you farther South, especially along the Interstate 70 corridor, and this was because of warmer temperatures last night that caused the precipitation to fall as mostly rain. Snow has filled in across the entire area and has became heavy for areas North of Interstate 70 and will continue through the early evening hours. The snow could become quite heavy at times and I still feel that some descent accumulations are possible from Lafayette to Tipton over to Muncie and Greenville.

So far many areas my forecast has done very well so far, and for you snow lovers that have received little snow so far, just be patient, as the snow is still filling in back West. 

Latest Trends

I know a lot of you are worried because you might changed over to light rain when you had snow earlier. You can take a sigh of relief! Remember for one, I didn't expect the snow to get started until around 5:00 or 6:00 AM, so we are already ahead of schedule.
 
I expect temperatures to continue to drop, especially as heavier precipitation moves and causes dynamic/evaporational cooling. Temperatures will fluctuate for a few hours, but will ultimately drop below freezing by the early morning hours for most areas North of Interstate 70.
 
It could take a few hours longer right along Interstate 70, and that is why I am forecasting 3-5 inches for those areas. 
 
Wabash County is already reporting 3 inches of snowfall, which would correlate with my highest snowfall band. 
 
Really no changes in the forecast. I do think thundersnow is likely tonight, so make sure you email me if you experience thundersnow! 

February 25, 2008

Latest Official NWS Snowfall Reports

1025 PM     SNOW             LA PORTE                41.61N  86.71W  
02/25/2008 M1.1 INCH LA PORTE IN TRAINED SPOTTER  
 
1.1 INCHES TOTAL OVER PAST 3 HOURS. DID BEGIN AS SOME  
SLEET.  
 

 
1019 PM SNOW 2 N NORTH WEBSTER 41.35N 85.70W  
02/25/2008  M1.0 INCH        KOSCIUSKO          IN   OFFICIAL NWS OBS  
 
            ONE INCH OF SNOW SO FAR.   
 

 
1013 PM     SNOW             AKRON                   41.04N  86.02W  
02/25/2008 M1.0 INCH FULTON IN TRAINED SPOTTER  
 
9 TENTHS ADDITIONAL SNOW IN PAST HOUR. STORM TOTAL OF 1  
INCH SO FAR  


 
0959 PM     SNOW             NORTH MANCHESTER        41.00N  85.77W  
02/25/2008 M1.3 INCH WABASH IN TRAINED SPOTTER  
 
1.3 INCHES OVER THE PAST HOUR  
 

Latest Update from NWS Northern Indiana

Here is the latest update from the NWS Northern Indiana for areas South of Fort Wayne.
 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
1024 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008  
 
...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY  
EVENING...  
 
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT  
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS NEARLY COMPLETE...WITH  
ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AROUND LIMA OHIO  
STILL SHOWING A MIX IN OBS. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE  
FORM OF SNOW REGIONWIDE BY 1 OR 2 AM EST. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY  
AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BLOWING  
AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY. MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8  
INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES  
POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  
 
THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STRENGTH AND  
TRACK OF THE LOW. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE THE  
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK  
CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENT  
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR  
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE THE MOST INTENSE BANDS  
SET UP. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD FALL  
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME WHERE  
FORCING APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE  
MORNING HOURS. THUNDERSNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW ALSO LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER  
EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. IT IS  
POSSIBLE THAT AN INTENSE SINGLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY  
DEVELOP POSSIBLY RESULTING IN 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW.  
 
INZ006>009-017-018-025>027-032>034-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002-004-005-  
015-016-024-025-261130-  
/O.CON.KIWX.WS.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080227T0000Z/  
LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-  
ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-  
DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...  
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...COLUMBIA CITY...  
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...  
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...  
PORTLAND...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...  
DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...  
VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA  
1024 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008  
 
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST  
TUESDAY...  
 
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT  
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS NEARLY COMPLETE...WITH  
ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AROUND LIMA OHIO  
STILL SHOWING A MIX IN OBS. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE  
FORM OF SNOW REGIONWIDE BY 1 OR 2 AM EST. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY  
AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BLOWING  
AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY. MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 9  
INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES  
POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  
 
THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STRENGTH AND  
TRACK OF THE LOW. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE THE  
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK  
CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENT  
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WIDESPREAD 5 TO 9 INCH SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR  
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE THE MOST INTENSE BANDS  
SET UP. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD FALL  
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME WHERE  
FORCING APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE  
MORNING HOURS. THUNDERSNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.  

 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND  
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.  
 
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER  
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION...OR FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEB  
SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX  
 
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE  
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL  
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.  
 

9:00 (21:00) Surface Observations

Here are the 9:00 PM surface observations for Indiana from the offical National Weather Service reporting stations. Note that everywhere North of Bloomington is now reporting snow, and with intense precipitation rates, I suspect that this is forcing the precipitation to change to snow and or a wintry mix. With dynamic/evaporational cooling taking place, it is likely that temperatures will continue to drop through the night.
 
WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR INDIANA  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
900 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008  
 
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO  
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR S TO VISIBILITY
. REPORTS OF  
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE NOT  
AVAILABLE FROM KOKOMO AND HUNTINGBURG.  
 
INZ001>027-260300-  
NORTHERN INDIANA  
 
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
 
GARY /AIRPORT/ LGT SNOW 36 34 93 CALM 29.77F  
VALPARAISO LGT SNOW 32 30 92 E5 29.77F FOG WCI 27  
SOUTH BEND LGT SNOW 32 29 88 SE3 29.79S FOG  
GOSHEN LGT SNOW 32 30 93 E3 29.79S FOG  
WARSAW LGT RAIN 32 30 93 E6 29.77F WCI 26  
FORT WAYNE LGT SNOW 32 29 88 E6 29.80F FOG WCI 26  
PERU/GRISSOM CLOUDY 32 31 96 SE12 29.76F WCI 23  
 

 
 
INZ028>059-064-065-260300-  
CENTRAL INDIANA  
 
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
 
LAFAYETTE LGT SNOW 34 30 85 SE7 29.76F FOG WCI 28  
KOKOMO CLOUDY 36 28 75 SE13 29.75F  
MUNCIE CLOUDY 33 30 88 SE5 29.79F FOG WCI 29  
INDIANAPOLIS SLEET 33 31 92 SE8 29.76S FOG WCI 26  
-EAGLE CREEK LGT SNOW 33 30 88 SE8 29.77F FOG WCI 26  
TERRE HAUTE LGT RAIN 34 30 86 E8 29.75F FOG WCI 27  
SHELBYVILLE LGT SNOW 33 31 92 S3 29.78R FOG  
COLUMBUS CLOUDY 32 32 100 NE7 29.78F FOG WCI 26  
 

 
 
INZ060>063-066>092-260300-  
SOUTHERN INDIANA  
 
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
 
BLOOMINGTON LGT SNOW 34 30 86 CALM 29.76R FOG  
HUNTINGBURG CLOUDY 37 37 100 SE6 29.73F  
EVANSVILLE LGT RAIN 41 37 86 E9 29.68F FOG  
 

9:30 PM Update

Just thought I would pass on some reports I am getting in to IndianaWeatherOnline.com and LetsTalkWeather.net
 
  • Report of a glaze of ice on surfaces at Indianapolis.
  • Report out of Lapel of moderate snowfall
  • Adams/Allen County line: Dusting of new snowfall
  • Snow falling in Blackford County
Also I am not sure what they are thinking, but have preliminary information that the NWS Indianapolis might only be going with an advisory for their whole area including Indianapolis, Anderson, Kokomo, Muncie and Winchester. I completely disagree and do not understand that decision at all. Maybe they will change their mind at the last minute, guess we will see.

Blizzard-Like Conditions?

Just a quick note, have been following temperatures really closely, and it has became apparent that as the precipitation has started to fall across Central and Western Indiana, evaporational cooling has set in. In fact since 6:00 PM, Indianapolis has went from 36 degrees to 33 degrees.

Many locations across Central Indiana reporting a wintry mix already and the latest short-term model, the RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) is forecasting 3-4 inches of snow by 5:00 AM in the Lafayette and Kokomo areas with 1-2 inches already on the ground from Muncie to Richmond over to Greenville. That is definitely ahead of schedule.

The low pressure system is currently located near the Northern Arkansas/Tenn border, which definitely verifies my thoughts that this storm would take a more Southern track. I look for the storm to eject back Northeast into Northeastern Kentucky by tomorrow and that means an increase in snow and winds across Indiana and Ohio.

I would not be surprised if widespread blizzard-like conditions develop by late tomorrow morning through the evening. Will this be a full-blown blizzard? I am not sure yet, but I'm working on it and will be providing a full analysis later tonight.

Winter Storm Update

A major winter storm still looks to affect the area tonight and into the day on Tuesday. In fact, the National Weather Service has issued *Winter Storm Warnings* for many areas across Northern and Eastern Indiana.

Here is the latest Winter Storm Warning statements from the National Weather Service out of Northern Indiana.


205  
WWUS43 KIWX 252150  
WSWIWX  
 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
450 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008  
 
...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH  
TUESDAY EVENING...  
 
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND  
TUESDAY. RAIN AND SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ARE  
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST  
TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE  
FORM OF SNOW. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY  
TUESDAY...AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY. MODERATE  
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER  
AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  
 
THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK  
OF THE LOW. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE THE  
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK  
CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENT  
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR  
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE THE MOST INTENSE BANDS  
SET UP.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW ALSO LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER  
EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. IT IS  
POSSIBLE THAT AN INTENSE SINGLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY  
DEVELOP POSSIBLY RESULTING IN 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW.  
 
INZ005-012>016-020-022>024-260600-  
/O.UPG.KIWX.WS.A.0004.080226T0000Z-080227T0600Z/  
/O.NEW.KIWX.WS.W.0011.080226T0000Z-080226T2100Z/  
ELKHART-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITE-CASS IN-  
MIAMI-WABASH-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKHART...GOSHEN...KNOX...  
NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...  
ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...  
LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER  
450 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008 /350 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/  
 
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/  
TUESDAY...  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A  
WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM  
CST/ TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND  
TUESDAY. RAIN AND SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ARE  
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST  
TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE  
FORM OF SNOW. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY  
TUESDAY...AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY. MODERATE  
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER  
AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  
 
THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK  
OF THE LOW. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE THE  
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK  
CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENT  
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR  
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE THE MOST INTENSE BANDS  
SET UP.  
 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND  
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.  
 
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER  
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION...OR FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEB  
SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX  
 
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...  
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO  
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.  
 

 
 
INZ006>009-017-018-025>027-032>034-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002-004-005-  
015-016-024-025-260600-  
/O.UPG.KIWX.WS.A.0004.080226T0000Z-080227T0600Z/  
/O.NEW.KIWX.WS.W.0011.080226T0300Z-080227T0000Z/  
LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-  
ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-  
DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...  
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...COLUMBIA CITY...  
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...  
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...  
PORTLAND...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...  
DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...  
VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA  
450 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008  
 
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM  
EST TUESDAY...  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A  
WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING  
TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN  
EFFECT.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND  
TUESDAY. RAIN AND SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ARE  
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST  
TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE  
FORM OF SNOW. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY  
TUESDAY...AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY. MODERATE  
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER  
AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  
 
THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK  
OF THE LOW. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE THE  
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK  
CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENT  
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR  
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE THE MOST INTENSE BANDS  
SET UP.  
 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND  
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.  
 
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER  
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION...OR FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEB  
SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX  
 
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE  
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL  
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.  
I really have no changes to the forecast. This will be a major winter storm and will have major implications across the area.

Localized Eastern Indiana/Western Ohio Map

Morning Update

While I have little no support from any other local meteorologists, I still have confidence that accumulating snow will develop tonight and that the snow storm could be major for areas North of Interstate 70 all the way to the Michigan line.

Light rain will develop tonight and I look for a changeover to snow to begin across Northwest and West Central Indiana by 4:00 am. As the freezing line sweeps Southeast across the area, I look for rain to change to snow across all of Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio by 7:00 AM.

Snow will continue through the day on Tuesday and will likely become quite heavy through the morning and afternoon hours and I actually expect the snow to continue into the evening and possibly overnight hours as a deformation zone/throwal develops across Central Indiana and Western Ohio.

Snowfall rates on Tuesday could be quite heavy with rates approaching 1-2 inches hours at times in the height of the storm. The other big story is that as the low pressure system strengthens, winds will increase and blowing and drifting will become a major story. In fact, I expect that winds could gust to 45 mph across the Northeastern half of Indiana and all of Western Ohio and this could create whiteout conditions to near blizzard conditions at time.

Total snowfall accumulations will range from 2-4 inches across Terre Haute, Indianapolis, Crawfordsville and Noblesville.

Farther Northwest 4-6 inches is likely at Lafayette, Tipton, Kokomo, Anderson, Logansport and Delphi.

Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, New Castle, and Eaton (Ohio) will see 3-5 inches.

Dayton (Ohio) will see 2-3 inches.

Winchester, Muncie, Portland, Marion Huntington, Decatur, Berne, Greenville (Ohio), Sidney (Ohio), and Celina (Ohio) will see 4-7 inches.

Gary to South Bend over to Fort Wayne will see 6-10 inches.

Here is my forecast map concerning the progression of the freezing line tonight.



Once again today, I have doctors appointments in Dayton all day, so I doubt I get a chance to send out another update before I leave, but I will be taking my laptop so that I can send out email updates and at least update the blog.

February 24, 2008

Major Winter Storm Heading Towards Indiana/Ohio

It appears a major winter storm will impact the Northern half of Indiana and Ohio late Monday Night and into the day on Tuesday and even early Wednesday. A low pressure system will move into far Northern Kentucky and then into East Central Ohio by Tuesday Night. As the system moves East it will also strengthen and get wound up adding extremely strong winds to the mix with this storm.

It still appears that light rain will begin to fall late tomorrow night and into the early morning hours on Tuesday. The main winter event will get going during the day on Tuesday as heavy snow begins to fall, especially North of Interstate 70. Snowfall rates could exceed an inch per hour and with the latest models indicating some elevated instability, some convective elements will be possible with the snowfall, which means that thundersnow would be a possibility. Any areas that receive thundersnow, could easily see 2 or 3 inches of snow within an hour.

As the day wears on Tuesday, the freezing line will progess Southeast and it appears that areas South of Interstate 70 could change to some light to moderate snow.

A deformation zone/trowal develops by Tuesday Afternoon over Central and Northern Indiana and this would bring heavy snow back to the area.

As winds increase throughout the day, travel conditions will become very hazardous as blowing and drifting becomes a major issue. With the possibility of winds gusting up to 45 mph, blizzard conditions are definitely possible across the Northern half of Indiana and Ohio.

Snowfall accumulations could easily climb to well over 6 inches of snow for many areas with isolated areas in Northern Indiana seeing up to or over a foot of snow.

I will send out an update early Monday Morning with updated snowfall accumulation forecasts, so stay tuned!

What La Nina means for the severe weather season

La Niña is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon similar to El Niño. During a period of La Niña, the sea surface temperature across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean will be lower than normal by 0.5 °C. In the United States, an episode of La Niña is defined as a period of at least 5 months of La Niña conditions.

So far during the end of 2007 and early 2008, La Nina has been extremely strong, likely the cuase of our extreme weather patterns so far this Winter. La Nina traditionally causes the Great Lakes, Plains and Midwest to experience much colder and snowier winters. With La Nina currently strenghening, I still expect and that is why I have been forecasting the next 2-4 weeks to be the worst we have seen so far this winter.

Now wth La Nina remaining strong through the Spring, I expect a volatile severe weather season across the Eastern half of the United States, at least through May.

We have already seen unprecidented severe weather outbreaks this year with the major tornado outbreak across portions of Tenn, Kentucky and Arkansas back in February and with Indiana seeing tornadoes in both the months of January and February for the first time in decades.

La Nina typically provides a split flow jet-stream, with the Northern branch and the Pacific/Southern Branch. This type of pattern set-up causes strong storms to develop along the Southern branch and clash with colder air and often times phase with systems on the Northern branch of the jet-stream. This in turn causes significant severe weather outbreaks out ahead of the weather systems. So get ready as severe weather season is almost here.

Weather Roller Coaster for the next 24 hours

Well a wild 48 hours of weather is on the way to portions of Indiana and Ohio. Here are just some quick hi-lites:

  • Dense fog possible tonight through Monday Morning
  • Above normal temperatures on Monday but they won't last long
  • Major storm system to impact the area Monday Night and Tuesday
    • Light rain changes to heavy snow
    • Accumulations likely North of Interstate 70
    • Strong winds gust to 45 mph could cause blizzard like conditions at times
  • Brief break in the weather for Wednesday
  • Clipper brings snow back to the area Thursday
  • Another storm system could bring winter weather to the area by next weekend!

Stay tuned for a more detailed update here in the next couple of hours!

Early Projections for Sunday Night/Monday

First, a quick note about this mornings surprise snowfall, the low pressure system is finally starting to wind down and weaken a tad, but areas South of Indianapolis could still get some light snow and up to an inch through the early morning hours, no other changes.

Now with the storm for Monday Night and Tuesday, I have no changes. I still expect the storm to take a Farther South track and there are a lot of models that are trending that way (towards a Southern Solution) and that support my forecast. In fact the new NAM (North American Forecast Model) show a really descent snowfall event across portions of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.

Right now, I expect the best potential for accumulating snow to fall across the Northern half of Indiana and the Northern half of Ohio (generally North of Interstate 70). I think someone could see well over 8 inches of snowfall from this storm, probably closer to the Michigan border, but there will be a large area of 3-6 inches across most of the Northern half of Indiana. Remember that these are my early projections for this storm, and things could change but we are getting closer by the second and I do think that the National Weather Service will probably start issuing watches later today.

 Just a quick FYI, we will have a better idea of what this storm will do later today as the forecast models ingest data from surface observations on the West Coast.

 

Surprise Snowfall?

A strong upper level low pressure is currently tracking through parts of Missouri and will impact parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day on Sunday. While earlier forecasts showed this being a much weaker system, the storm has became a strong but very compact upper level storm system.

 Some moderate snowfall has been falling across parts of Missouri and some areas have already received over 4 inches of snowfall! I do think the precipitation will weaken some as it moves towards the Ohio Valley, but a quick dusting to inch of snowfall will be possible through the morning hours with the best chances for accumulating snow being across Southern and Southeastern Indiana.

 

Ohio Valley Radar

 Also watch out this morning for some patchy dense fog, especially in Western Indiana.

I will be doing another update shortly concerning the potential snow storm Monday Night and Tuesday!

February 23, 2008

Winter In Full Swing

First of all welcome to our brand new IndianaWeatherOnline.com Discussion Blog. Yes, we have upgraded our Discussion page to the 21st Century and have converted the format to a blog joining the rest of the world!

Now on to the weather! It appears that a very cold and wintry pattern is taking hold of the Ohio Valley and Midwest, especially for the next two to four weeks.

La Nina continues to stengthen and thus I expect a strong trough to develop across the Central and Eastern United States. The tough will keep the Ohio Valley and the Midwest locked in a winter pattern with Arctic air intruding Southward from Canada. This combined with a split-flow developing (two jet streams) will put the Ohio Valley and Midwest in a favorable area for winter storms.

The first storm we will be watching is a storm system that is currently developing across the West Coast. The low pressure system we are tracking hasn’t quite made it to the West Coast yet, but will later this evening and will move Southeast towards the Central Rockies. The storm will likely weaken some and get slowed down some as it crosses the Rocky Mountains as Mountains tend to do that to storms, but will redevelop across Southern Kansas by midday on Sunday. The storm will then move East towards the Ohio Valley and I expect it to track into far Northern Kentucky and then into Central Ohio. This would put the Northern Half of Indiana and the Northwestern half of Ohio in a favorable area for heavy snowfall.

 

Where I think the low pressure will track!

 

The latest 18Z NAM (North American Forecast Model) shows the low pressure farther North diving Southeast from Iowa into Central Indiana and then into Ohio. This forecast track would bring our area rain at the beginning of the storm before the rain changes to snow and several inches of snow would be posible. I don’t agree with this storm track though for several reasons. First the Baroclinic Zone (a region in which a temperature gradient exists on a surface of constant pressure; not barotropic. Baroclinic zones are favored areas for strengthening and weakening weather systems.) will be much farther South than with previous storms. Also a large and strong area of high pressure will be sitting over the Northern Plains and Western Great Lakes and this will force the low pressure farther South.

 

NAM Accumulated Precipitation

 

The storm will likely continue into the day on Tuesday with snow falling, especially across the Northern half of Indiana and all of Western Ohio and it will likely become very windy as the storm strengthens and moves into Ohio before a new low pressure develops off the New England coast.

Behind the storm on Tuesday, Arctic air will rush into the region. Temperatures will be well below normal through the end of the week. To go along with this Arctic air, a strong clipper will dive Southeast out of Canada into the Ohio Valley on Thursday and looks to bring another solid accumulating snowfall to the area.

I hope you have enjoyed our new blog/forecast discussion and enjoy the new format. Also with the new format comes new features, and this means that all of you can now leave comments and questions with each blog entry! So if you have a question, feel free to post it and we will try to answer it to the best of our ability.

For now stay tuned, stay safe and enjoy your weekend!
Brandon Redmond
www.IndianaWeatherOnline.com
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