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Well I'll Try to answer that question, but as of right now there appear to be more questions than answers!

Ok so this could officially be the worst map I've ever made, lol and its very busy, but it shows what I'm thinking on Friday. I expect to see some early morning elevated convection along the warm front across Northern Illinois and that could produce some isolated hail and probably more heavy rain than anything. (Area in blue)

What still is yet to be determined is how fast that area across Illinois and Missouri clears out and how much instability is able to develop during the afternoon. The 950-900 MB layer will be close to saturated early Friday and that could mean that there could be some extensive low level clouds which limit heating and instability. Even with this possibility, the models are still cranking out some modest surface and mid level cape, and if any heating occurs it will only enhance the instability.

I do have some concerns because the NAM is already busting to high on dewpoints, but hopefully with a strong LLJ moisture won't be a problem. The NAM shows 65 degree dewpoints streaming north through the Ohio Valley, and even if that is a tad to high and we can get up or slightly above 60, it still should be favorable for severe weather and supercell development.

Winds backed to the SE across much of Northern Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois and into Eastern Missouri by early Friday Afternoon. There also looks to be strong some strong shear especially during the afternoon hours before the low slides farther to the Northeast.

With a possible outflow boundary from early morning convection, that could provide enough forcing to spark some pre-frontal thunderstorm development/supercells and segments during the afternoon hours. It looks like forcing will be very limited farther East across Indiana into Ohio, but Illinois into Northern Kentucky and Southeastern and Eastern Missouri could see some supercellular development conditional on sufficient heating and instability by the early afternoon hours. (Area in Red)

As the cold front sweeps East early Friday Evening, a squall line will likely race rapidly to East and Northeast and will bring some damaging winds and maybe some large hail with fairly steep lapse rates, but it looks like the tornado threat will be minimal by that time, so any tornadic development looks to stem from the afternoon convection and possible supercells.

The squall line will likely out race the cold front and continue to pose a threat for damaging winds as far East as Ohio, but with more limited instability and the squall line pulling farther away from the upper level dynamics, the severe threat will likely become more minimal the farther East you go. (Area in Dark Red)

Areas I see for the most widespread severe activtiy: Western and Southwestern Indiana, Northern and Northwestern Kentucky, Southern 2/3's of Illinois and Eastern and Southeastern Missouri and maybe down into portions of Arkansas and Western Tenn. (Didn't study those areas as much.)

Needless to say, it looks like it could be a moderate risk day in some areas.

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 04:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

While the storm is still several days off, it appears the chances for severe weather are increasing across the area for Thursday and Friday. A strong low pressure system will slide Northeast through the Mississippi Valley and will cause a warm front to swing through the area on Thursday.

An unstable atmosphere will be in place on Thursday, and some thunderstorms could fire along the warm front.

A cold front will then slide through the area on Friday and Friday Night and will bring another chance for severe weather to the area.

 

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 06:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Thunderstorms have made it to Central Illinois and continue to spread to the East Northeast. In fact there are even a few tornado warnings at this time in Central Illinois. A threat for damaging winds and large hail will spread into Western and Northwestern Indiana within the next few hours, but I do expect the line to begin weakening after midnight.

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 06:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Severe Weather is on-going to our West with lines and clusters of severe thunderstorms from Wisconsin through Illinois and into Missouri. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was issued earlier has now been upgraded to a Tornado Watch and there have been several tornado reports. We will be monitoring the situation throughout the evening!

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 04:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Storms are beginning to form across portions of Western Illinois and Eastern Missouri. A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted for that area. The atmosphere continues to become increasingly unstable with cape values approaching 2000 across portions of Northern Indiana into Illinois. Here is the latest radar image from Illinois and Missouri:

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 02:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

 

At Work:

Carpool

Pack your lunch in reusable containers

Send e-mail instead of paper mail

Use the back side of paper from printers and copiers

Turn off the computer when you're leaving

Doing the Laundry:

Wash and dry only full loads

Use the warm setting instead of hot

Rinse with cold water

Hang the laundry to dry, rather than using a dryer

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 03:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The weather over the next several days is going to be absolutely fabulous, with plenty of sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures. A cold front is currently located to our West, and a Southwesterly flow is ushering in warm air across much of the Ohio Valley.

A few strong thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across portions of Iowa and Missouri along that cold front, and as the front slides Northeast, some isolated severe weather will be possible once again tomorrow across portions of Iowa, Illinois and possible far Western Indinaa. We are not expecting a widespread severe weather outbreak tough.

Later this week, another weather system will impact the area by Thursday Night and Friday, and more thunderstorms, some of which could be strong will be possible.

But lets not worry about that yet, as we have plenty of time to watch that storm, so until then, get outside and enjoy the beautiful weather!

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 01:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

IndianaWeatherOnline.com's Precision StormTracker can find more than just rain! Here are some images from our Radar Software from earlier this morning, showing exactly where the Earthquake was located. The initial tremor was rated a 5.2 with two 2.5 after-shocks!

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 09:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

If you have been sneezing a lot here lately, it is likely due to extremely high pollen counts. The Pollen count remains in the high category across most of the Nation and will remain elevated through the end of the week.

If you have tree pollen allergies... some things to keep in mind:

* Avoid being outside in the morning, when tree pollen is highest. Save the outdoor activities until later in the day, when it subsides.

* Tree pollen is usually lower after a good rain, save longer outdoor

* Keep windows closed and use the A/C if needed

* Take a shower or bath before bed, as pollen can be carried into the house on your clothes or hair. (and even on your pet!)

As far as the weather goes, a weather system is still forecast to bring rain and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley by Friday Afternoon and into the day on Saturday. One thing that myself and Jansen have both noticed though, is that the models are continuing to slow down the system, so it could end up lingering into Sunday. Stay tuned!

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 09:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 09:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

First of all I want to thank all my loyal viewers and all of you who are new viewers to the site for your support and continued belief in the IndianaWeatherOnline.com forecast products. Yesterday was a record day on IndianaWeatherOnline.com with over 46,000 visits! That is simply amazing and of course that happens on a day when I produce one of the worsts forecasts possible.

I can honestly say that the past two days worth of forecasting have been some of the worsts I have issued in some time, and thus I am issuing this final update for our non-existent storm to critique my forecasts and outline a few changes within our network of IndianaWeatherOnline.com sites.

First of all, in reference to this past storm, I "busted" my forecasts for several reasons. For more than 10 days out, the storm I had forecasted to be one that would produce a widespread and major severe weather outbreak had shown signs of being a "powerhouse" storm and all indications pointed to what would be a prolific severe weather outbreak.

In my emails, on my radio station forecasts and in news print, I had outlined the details and locations where I thought severe weather would occur, which included most of the state of Indiana and all of Western Ohio.

By yesterday morning (Thursday), it still appeared we would be on track for a major severe weather day, but by late morning several things had gone wrong. First, the low pressure strengthened essentially to rapidly and the severe weather potential was maximized farther South and West. Secondly, the warm front stalled near Interstate 70 and left a large chunk of the area in the cold zone of the storm, which limited instability.

Needless to say, there were only 4 tornado warnings issued in Indiana and those were in the far Southern and Southwestern part of the state, none which verified any confirmed tornadoes.

I am by all means, extremely glad that we did not see a major severe weather outbreak, as the last thing I would ever want to see is damage to property or injuries and deaths, but did feel it necessary to provide this update as to why my forecast was simply so "off."

Quickly as far as our upcoming weather goes, expect some light rain and snow showers through the weekend with a fairly seasonable and quiet weather week in store for next week, so Jansen and myself are going to be enjoying a quiet and easy weather week.

Now as far as IndianaWeatherOnline.com, we have unveiled a few new additions and changes to the site.

We have added a daily Golf Forecast called GolfCast for all of you golfers! Jansen will be the primary forecaster for this page of the site, as he himself is an avid golfer. You can find the link for the GolfCast on the frontpage of the site.

We also have added a Weather Chatroom which can be accessed at www.TheWeatherChat.com

Jansen is maintaining his own weather blog that addresses current weather trends and changes in the upcoming weather pattern.

Finally, we are producing severe weather outlooks for the Eastern half of the United States out to 48 hours in advance every day, and those can be accessed under our Storm Center Page.

More features will be coming soon!

I'm still working on advertising on our network of sites, but if your business is interested, we still have a few open spots, so please contact me.

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 04:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Jansen and myself have bee forecasting a severe weather episode, one that will likely be major, on Thursday into Friday. So why do we think this will be a widespread and enhanced severe weather event? Well here are the answers!

By Thursday, you can see the area of deeper (blue and purple colors) over Western Missouri. This is the area of low pressure which is deepening and strengthening as it moves Northeast into Iowa. The area to the right (East) of this low pressure is where you will find the warm front and associated severe weather threat. On Friday, the cold front will extend South of the low pressure area and will provide a mechanism for yet another severe weather episode.

Dewpoints are a measure of the moisture in the atmosphere in relation to temperatures. Moisture is a key in production of severe weather. You can see 60 and 65 degree dewpoints streaming North into the Lower Great Lakes. The area where the black and green colors collide is where the warm front is located. Along and South of the warm front is where the highest tornado threat exists.

Lift Indicies (LI's) are a measure of the amount of lift and instability in the atmosphere. Negative values are found across the Ohio Valley, and these will likely be slightly lower than what current models are forecasting.

Finally, you can see a strong jet moving through the Midwest and Ohio Valley (the green and yellows) which would only enhance the severe weather threat and increase the threat for damaging winds.

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 06:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Just a quick post this evening, but one thing everyone must remember when we are dealing with forecasting severe weather is that it is very difficult to pinpoint exactly what will happen with a severe weather episode until the day it is expected to occur due to so many variables that don't come together until the last minute. The mesoscale details of a storm cannot be fine-tuned until the day of, when we are able to see where front positions end up setting up, where outflow boundaries form, where shear and instability is the highest, etc.

Therefore, it remains nearly impossible to pinpoint what areas will see the most significant severe weather, but I still stand by my forecast that a major severe weather episode will be likely on Thursday and Friday across the Ohio Valley!

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 05:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

IndianaWeatherOnline.com Dangerous Severe Weather Alert
Issued by Brandon Redmond on April 7th, 2008 at 12:30 PM

Two rounds of severe weather are possible this week, with the second one being much worse than the first.

The first round of severe weather will arrive by late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Thunderstorms will develop across Missouri, Illinois and Kentucky and spread into Indiana and eventually Western Ohio. The storms will likely start out as supercells, but will eventually congeal into a squall line. The highest risk of severe weather before 8:00 PM will be west of Indianapolis, and those areas will also have the highest risk for tornadoes. After 8:00 PM, the squall line will likely overspread the entire area with a risk of damaging winds, isolated large hail and heavy rainfall.

While round one of the thunderstorms will pose a risk for severe weather, round number two on Thursday and Friday will be much much much more dangerous.

By Thursday and Friday, an extremely strong weather system will be located to our west, in fact it is forecasted to deepen (strengthen) to levels I personally cannot remember ever seeing. A widespread and dangerous, possibly record-breaking tornado outbreak will occur on Thursday and Friday from the Great Lakes all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. This storm in fact has numerous similarities as far as the track, strength and current weather pattern to the infamous April 3rd, 1974 tornado outbreak.

This system will bring several rounds of tornadic and severe thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley, beginning as early as Thursday Afternoon and continuing through Friday when the cold front will finally pass through the region. The third round of severe weather on Friday will likely be in the form of a very dangerous derecho (extremely intense squall line) that will be capable of producing winds in excess of 100 mph in some areas.

While I know that often times weather forecasts seem blown out of proportion and "hyped", I cannot express enough how dangerous this storm looks on Thursday and Friday. While a lot can change between now and then, all indications point towards a severe weather outbreak that will go down in the history books. Please, please, please monitor the weather forecasts during the next several days. I will be updating the site quite often, and in fact the site is already in severe weather mode. Also we have added a weather chatroom and you can discuss the storm on our forums at LetsTalkWeather.net

Jansen and myself will be doing live video updates all week to keep you all updated.

Stay tuned and stay safe

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 12:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

If you haven't picked up on the hints Jansen and myself have dropped over the past few days, I am going to spell it out for you, this will be a historical week of weather that many will remember for years to come.

From a raging blizzard stretching from Nebraska into the Dakota on Eastward to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, to a major and what will likely be a historical tornado outbreak from the Southern Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico, Thursday and Friday's storm will be one with major implications for half of the Nation.

The storm will develop on Wednesday in the Southern Plains and just as quickly as it develops, it will become a major powerhouse of storms, the storm of all storms, at least compared to anything we have seen in the past several years.

The storm will strengthen to below 990 MB which is considered a very major storm, and some of our models develop the low pressure much deeper than that. A low pressure system will be located near Northwestern Missouri/Northeastern Kansas by Thursday with a warm front layed out from Kansas City to Columbus, Ohio. Isolated tornadoes and supercells will develop by Thursday afternoon across the Ohio Valley, and any storm that becomes a right mover along the warm front will be capable of producing violent tornadoes.

The storm will continue into Friday, with possibly two more rounds of severe weather, including the possibility for an extensive squall line to develop along the cold front by Friday Afternoon.

So here in the Ohio Valley what can we expect? Well basically any and every type of severe weather, including extremely damaging winds, large hail and violent tornadoes. Heavy rain will also be possible and will only aggrivate the flooding situation.

Below is an image of the 00z UKMET from this morning, showing what would likely be a historical storm deepening to 983 MB in Southern Wisconsin.

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 08:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The storm system on Thursday & Friday looks pretty impressive to me if the models keep such a strong trough. The set up on the gfs looks like there could be a dry punch at mid levels. The big catch is its still very early in the game so things, the trough evolution still could change and lessen the threat. For fun compare the 132 hr forecast from the GFS with April 3, 1974. Not a perfect match but some similarities in that both show a strong trough with a potent low level jet.

Attached is a 4 panel image of the 1974 outbreak, and the other two are model images showing the possibility for Friday. Definitely some comparisons.

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 02:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The EURO and other operational models continue to show a well-developed low pressure system with an amplifying trough and almost a perfect severe weather set-up for a large part of the Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley. The storm will likely begin to affect the Western Portions of Indiana late Monday Night, but our main show should be on Tuesday.

Here are some images I drew up based on the EURO's depiction for early next week

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 04:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

While this necessarily doesn't have to do with the weather here in Indiana, it is extremely interesting. Last night, as many of you already know, a tornado touched down in parts of the Little Rock area. We were tracking the storms over at LetsTalkWeather.net and I noticed an interesting feature on doppler radar, called a debris ball.

The debris ball is a relatively new concept, and was discovered only less than 2 months ago when tornadoes ravished parts of Tennessee.

Last night's radar images showed a well defined debris ball in the Little Rock Metro area and I have hi-lited the region where it was indicated in the image below. A debris ball is a feature picked up on doppler radar when there is debris spinning in the air associated with a tornado on the ground.

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 03:57 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

As many of you know, IndianaWeatherOnline.com's own forecaster Jansen Smith will be storm and tornado chasing tomorrow across parts of the Mississippi River Valley.

Jansen and I have been trying to pinpoint where the highest probability of severe weather will occur tomorrow and where he should target his chase. We have both decided we feel the highest risk of severe weather and tornados will be across Southern Missouri, Arkansas, Western Kentucky and Western Tennessee.

The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting severe weather to be more likely across Texas, but neither of us see this being the enhanced risk area. That is why we are forecasting a moderate risk of severe storms in the areas listed above.

Below is a graphic showing surface cape base tomorrow afternoon, and you can see sufficient levels of cape across Jansen's target area.

Also, you can see that helicity values are actually the highest out of anywhere in the severe storm risk tomorrow across Jansen's Target area.

Shear values are also quite high across Jansen's Severe Weather Risk area

Here are lift indicies for tomorrow, falling below zero across Jansen's chase area

Here is the simulated radar for tomorrow, showing the potential for supercellular development and lewps by late afternoon

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 11:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by IndianaWeatherOnline at 01:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)