June 6th Severe Weather Damage Photos
June 07, 2008
June 02, 2008
Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Tuesday
A fairly sizeable severe weather event is looking to set-up across the Ohio Valley including all of Indiana and all of Western Ohio for Tuesday.
A strong trough of low pressure will eject Northeast into the Ohio Valley and an extremely unstable atmosphere will set up across the region. By afternoon, strong to severe thunderstorms will develop to our West and begin to move across Indiana and into Western Ohio.
Extremely high lapse rates and very cold upper air temperatures will promote the development of some extremely large hail. Wind backed southeasterly surface winds, some tornadoes will also be possible.
The exact details of the severe weather event are still in question, but it is looking more and more likely that a major severe weather event will take place tomorrow (on Tuesday).
As some of you saw, IndianaWeatherOnline.com tried a new Live Severe Weather Mode during Friday's Severe Weather Event. We used what is called a live blog and also had live video coverage of radar data on the frontpage of the site. If you saw and used the website during the Severe Weather Event on Friday, we are looking for feedback on whether you liked the coverage and what you would like to see during severe weather outbreaks, so please feel free to drop me an email.
May 30, 2008
Severe Storms Today (Friday May 30th)
A fairly significant severe weather outbreak is expected to unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley later this afternoon and into this evening. Severe Thunderstorms are currently on-going across parts of Illinois and Iowa.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire area under a moderate risk for severe weather. I also agree with that forecast, and belive that a fairly significant severe weather episode appears likely.
The line of severe storms that is currently in Northern Illinois and Iowa will continue to move to East and could affect portions of Northwestern Indiana later today.
Meanwhile, more storms will develop farther South and West across portions of Eastern Missouri, Illinois and into Western Indiana. Upon initial development of the storms, some tornadoes will be possible before the storms become congealed into a squall line. The main threat for tornadoes will exist West of Indianapolis.
As the storms become and form into a squall line, they will rapidly race Eastward across Indiana and into Ohio producing widespread damaging winds, isolated large hail and a tornado or two.
May 23, 2008
Severe Weather on Memorial Day?
Memorial Day Weekend Forecast
Well for everyone with plans to be outside during the Holiday Weekend, the weather looks to be absolutely beautiful with plenty of sunshine and very mild temperatures. Temperatures will climb into the 70's and 80's through early next week. The only chance for rain through the Holiday Weekend will be late Monday Afternoon and Evening.
We are monitoring the possibility of what could be the possibility of a severe weather outbreak across parts of the Ohio Valley and Midwest on Monday (Memorial Day). We will of course be monitoring that throughout the weekend and will provide updates as necessary.
May 17, 2008
Warmer Weather Will Return!
As we head into next week, a ridge will develop to our West ushering in warmer weather across the Ohio Valley, but also setting the stage for thunderstorms across the area.
First of all though, we have to make it through this weekend which will feature cloudy skies, scattered rain showers and cooler than normal temperatures.
By Monday, warm front number one will slide Northeast across the Ohio Valley and will bring gusty winds, warmer air and some scattered after rain and thunderstorms.
By later this in the week, warm and moist air will return to the area and we will likely see the warmest temperatures of the year, with highs climbing into the 80's across a large portion of the area.
Unfortunately, this warm and moist air will set the stage for what could be a very stormy Memorial Day Weekend!
Stay tuned!
May 10, 2008
Major Severe Weather Outbreak - May 10th
A Major Severe Weather Outbreak is in the process of developing, which will ultimately affect a very large part of the United States. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas from Southwestern Indiana through Illinois, Kentucky, Arkansas and points farther South under a Moderate Risk for severe weather with a slight risk surroudning those areas. Violent tornadoes and extreme damaging winds will be likely from portions of Arkansas through the Lower Ohio Valley and into the South and Southeast.
May 03, 2008
Tornadoes Rip Through Mid-South Friday
While severe weather was more sporadic across the Ohio Valley on Friday, tornadoes and severe weather ripped through the Mid-South. Particularly hit hard was the town of Earle, Arkansas, where the NWS has preliminarily rated the tornado that struck that town as an EF-3.
From Earle, Arkansas:
May 02, 2008
Weekend Outlook
While some severe weather occurred on Friday, the storm was yet another under-performing event. These storms are just as awful to forecast as the ones this previous winter with last minute surface track discrepancies, under-performing moisture and insufficient instability.
Anyways, Friday did produce some severe hail across Southwestern and Western Indiana and we even saw a few tornado warnings near Gary.
As far as the rest of the weekend goes, we will see lingering showers and thunderstorms this morning and into the early afternoon hours, and those could affect the running of the Kentucky Derby.
Sunday will dry out but will also be cooler as the cold front sweeps through the area and causes winds to shift to the Northwest.
Severe Weather Update - 11:00 AM EDT
April 30, 2008
Severe Weather Friday?
Well I'll Try to answer that question, but as of right now there appear to be more questions than answers!
Ok so this could officially be the worst map I've ever made, lol and its very busy, but it shows what I'm thinking on Friday. I expect to see some early morning elevated convection along the warm front across Northern Illinois and that could produce some isolated hail and probably more heavy rain than anything. (Area in blue)
What still is yet to be determined is how fast that area across Illinois and Missouri clears out and how much instability is able to develop during the afternoon. The 950-900 MB layer will be close to saturated early Friday and that could mean that there could be some extensive low level clouds which limit heating and instability. Even with this possibility, the models are still cranking out some modest surface and mid level cape, and if any heating occurs it will only enhance the instability.
I do have some concerns because the NAM is already busting to high on dewpoints, but hopefully with a strong LLJ moisture won't be a problem. The NAM shows 65 degree dewpoints streaming north through the Ohio Valley, and even if that is a tad to high and we can get up or slightly above 60, it still should be favorable for severe weather and supercell development.
Winds backed to the SE across much of Northern Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois and into Eastern Missouri by early Friday Afternoon. There also looks to be strong some strong shear especially during the afternoon hours before the low slides farther to the Northeast.
With a possible outflow boundary from early morning convection, that could provide enough forcing to spark some pre-frontal thunderstorm development/supercells and segments during the afternoon hours. It looks like forcing will be very limited farther East across Indiana into Ohio, but Illinois into Northern Kentucky and Southeastern and Eastern Missouri could see some supercellular development conditional on sufficient heating and instability by the early afternoon hours. (Area in Red)
As the cold front sweeps East early Friday Evening, a squall line will likely race rapidly to East and Northeast and will bring some damaging winds and maybe some large hail with fairly steep lapse rates, but it looks like the tornado threat will be minimal by that time, so any tornadic development looks to stem from the afternoon convection and possible supercells.
The squall line will likely out race the cold front and continue to pose a threat for damaging winds as far East as Ohio, but with more limited instability and the squall line pulling farther away from the upper level dynamics, the severe threat will likely become more minimal the farther East you go. (Area in Dark Red)
Areas I see for the most widespread severe activtiy: Western and Southwestern Indiana, Northern and Northwestern Kentucky, Southern 2/3's of Illinois and Eastern and Southeastern Missouri and maybe down into portions of Arkansas and Western Tenn. (Didn't study those areas as much.)
Needless to say, it looks like it could be a moderate risk day in some areas.
April 28, 2008
Late Week Storms
While the storm is still several days off, it appears the chances for severe weather are increasing across the area for Thursday and Friday. A strong low pressure system will slide Northeast through the Mississippi Valley and will cause a warm front to swing through the area on Thursday.
An unstable atmosphere will be in place on Thursday, and some thunderstorms could fire along the warm front.
A cold front will then slide through the area on Friday and Friday Night and will bring another chance for severe weather to the area.
April 25, 2008
Severe Weather Update - 8:00 PM
Thunderstorms have made it to Central Illinois and continue to spread to the East Northeast. In fact there are even a few tornado warnings at this time in Central Illinois. A threat for damaging winds and large hail will spread into Western and Northwestern Indiana within the next few hours, but I do expect the line to begin weakening after midnight.
Severe Weather Update - 5:00 PM
Severe Weather is on-going to our West with lines and clusters of severe thunderstorms from Wisconsin through Illinois and into Missouri. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was issued earlier has now been upgraded to a Tornado Watch and there have been several tornado reports. We will be monitoring the situation throughout the evening!
Severe Weather Update - 3:00 PM
Storms are beginning to form across portions of Western Illinois and Eastern Missouri. A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted for that area. The atmosphere continues to become increasingly unstable with cape values approaching 2000 across portions of Northern Indiana into Illinois. Here is the latest radar image from Illinois and Missouri:
April 22, 2008
Earth Day 2008
At Work:
Carpool
Pack your lunch in reusable containers
Send e-mail instead of paper mail
Use the back side of paper from printers and copiers
Turn off the computer when you're leaving
Doing the Laundry:
Wash and dry only full loads
Use the warm setting instead of hot
Rinse with cold water
Hang the laundry to dry, rather than using a dryer
April 21, 2008
Enjoy the Beautiful Weather!
The weather over the next several days is going to be absolutely fabulous, with plenty of sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures. A cold front is currently located to our West, and a Southwesterly flow is ushering in warm air across much of the Ohio Valley.
A few strong thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across portions of Iowa and Missouri along that cold front, and as the front slides Northeast, some isolated severe weather will be possible once again tomorrow across portions of Iowa, Illinois and possible far Western Indinaa. We are not expecting a widespread severe weather outbreak tough.
Later this week, another weather system will impact the area by Thursday Night and Friday, and more thunderstorms, some of which could be strong will be possible.
But lets not worry about that yet, as we have plenty of time to watch that storm, so until then, get outside and enjoy the beautiful weather!
April 18, 2008
5.2 Earthquake Shakes Indiana
IndianaWeatherOnline.com's Precision StormTracker can find more than just rain! Here are some images from our Radar Software from earlier this morning, showing exactly where the Earthquake was located. The initial tremor was rated a 5.2 with two 2.5 after-shocks!
April 16, 2008
Sneezing? Lots of Pollen in the forecast!
If you have been sneezing a lot here lately, it is likely due to extremely high pollen counts. The Pollen count remains in the high category across most of the Nation and will remain elevated through the end of the week.
If you have tree pollen allergies... some things to keep in mind:
* Avoid being outside in the morning, when tree pollen is highest. Save the outdoor activities until later in the day, when it subsides.
* Tree pollen is usually lower after a good rain, save longer outdoor
* Keep windows closed and use the A/C if needed
* Take a shower or bath before bed, as pollen can be carried into the house on your clothes or hair. (and even on your pet!)
As far as the weather goes, a weather system is still forecast to bring rain and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley by Friday Afternoon and into the day on Saturday. One thing that myself and Jansen have both noticed though, is that the models are continuing to slow down the system, so it could end up lingering into Sunday. Stay tuned!
April 13, 2008
Quiet Weather? Can it be so..........
This is the first time in months that I have blogged about nice weather, but yes, warm and sunny weather will be upon us for several days with little weather to discuss. A strong area of high pressure will control our weather through Thursday and a southwesterly flow will usher in warmer air across Indiana and Western Ohio.
Temperatures should climb into the 60's and 70's by Tuesday and will continue to stay warm into the weekend.
A cut-off area of low pressure will begin to impact the region on Thursday Night and especially on Friday and could produce some rain showers and thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley. At this point, it is to early to speculate weather severe weather will be possible.
Have a great week and enjoy the beautiful weather!
April 12, 2008
What happened?
First of all I want to thank all my loyal viewers and all of you who are new viewers to the site for your support and continued belief in the IndianaWeatherOnline.com forecast products. Yesterday was a record day on IndianaWeatherOnline.com with over 46,000 visits! That is simply amazing and of course that happens on a day when I produce one of the worsts forecasts possible.
I can honestly say that the past two days worth of forecasting have been some of the worsts I have issued in some time, and thus I am issuing this final update for our non-existent storm to critique my forecasts and outline a few changes within our network of IndianaWeatherOnline.com sites.
First of all, in reference to this past storm, I "busted" my forecasts for several reasons. For more than 10 days out, the storm I had forecasted to be one that would produce a widespread and major severe weather outbreak had shown signs of being a "powerhouse" storm and all indications pointed to what would be a prolific severe weather outbreak.
In my emails, on my radio station forecasts and in news print, I had outlined the details and locations where I thought severe weather would occur, which included most of the state of Indiana and all of Western Ohio.
By yesterday morning (Thursday), it still appeared we would be on track for a major severe weather day, but by late morning several things had gone wrong. First, the low pressure strengthened essentially to rapidly and the severe weather potential was maximized farther South and West. Secondly, the warm front stalled near Interstate 70 and left a large chunk of the area in the cold zone of the storm, which limited instability.
Needless to say, there were only 4 tornado warnings issued in Indiana and those were in the far Southern and Southwestern part of the state, none which verified any confirmed tornadoes.
I am by all means, extremely glad that we did not see a major severe weather outbreak, as the last thing I would ever want to see is damage to property or injuries and deaths, but did feel it necessary to provide this update as to why my forecast was simply so "off."
Quickly as far as our upcoming weather goes, expect some light rain and snow showers through the weekend with a fairly seasonable and quiet weather week in store for next week, so Jansen and myself are going to be enjoying a quiet and easy weather week.
Now as far as IndianaWeatherOnline.com, we have unveiled a few new additions and changes to the site.
We have added a daily Golf Forecast called GolfCast for all of you golfers! Jansen will be the primary forecaster for this page of the site, as he himself is an avid golfer. You can find the link for the GolfCast on the frontpage of the site.
We also have added a Weather Chatroom which can be accessed at www.TheWeatherChat.com
Jansen is maintaining his own weather blog that addresses current weather trends and changes in the upcoming weather pattern.
Finally, we are producing severe weather outlooks for the Eastern half of the United States out to 48 hours in advance every day, and those can be accessed under our Storm Center Page.
More features will be coming soon!
I'm still working on advertising on our network of sites, but if your business is interested, we still have a few open spots, so please contact me.
I can honestly say that the past two days worth of forecasting have been some of the worsts I have issued in some time, and thus I am issuing this final update for our non-existent storm to critique my forecasts and outline a few changes within our network of IndianaWeatherOnline.com sites.
First of all, in reference to this past storm, I "busted" my forecasts for several reasons. For more than 10 days out, the storm I had forecasted to be one that would produce a widespread and major severe weather outbreak had shown signs of being a "powerhouse" storm and all indications pointed to what would be a prolific severe weather outbreak.
In my emails, on my radio station forecasts and in news print, I had outlined the details and locations where I thought severe weather would occur, which included most of the state of Indiana and all of Western Ohio.
By yesterday morning (Thursday), it still appeared we would be on track for a major severe weather day, but by late morning several things had gone wrong. First, the low pressure strengthened essentially to rapidly and the severe weather potential was maximized farther South and West. Secondly, the warm front stalled near Interstate 70 and left a large chunk of the area in the cold zone of the storm, which limited instability.
Needless to say, there were only 4 tornado warnings issued in Indiana and those were in the far Southern and Southwestern part of the state, none which verified any confirmed tornadoes.
I am by all means, extremely glad that we did not see a major severe weather outbreak, as the last thing I would ever want to see is damage to property or injuries and deaths, but did feel it necessary to provide this update as to why my forecast was simply so "off."
Quickly as far as our upcoming weather goes, expect some light rain and snow showers through the weekend with a fairly seasonable and quiet weather week in store for next week, so Jansen and myself are going to be enjoying a quiet and easy weather week.
Now as far as IndianaWeatherOnline.com, we have unveiled a few new additions and changes to the site.
We have added a daily Golf Forecast called GolfCast for all of you golfers! Jansen will be the primary forecaster for this page of the site, as he himself is an avid golfer. You can find the link for the GolfCast on the frontpage of the site.
We also have added a Weather Chatroom which can be accessed at www.TheWeatherChat.com
Jansen is maintaining his own weather blog that addresses current weather trends and changes in the upcoming weather pattern.
Finally, we are producing severe weather outlooks for the Eastern half of the United States out to 48 hours in advance every day, and those can be accessed under our Storm Center Page.
More features will be coming soon!
I'm still working on advertising on our network of sites, but if your business is interested, we still have a few open spots, so please contact me.
April 08, 2008
Severe Weather Episode Likely Thursday
Jansen and myself have bee forecasting a severe weather episode, one that will likely be major, on Thursday into Friday. So why do we think this will be a widespread and enhanced severe weather event? Well here are the answers!
By Thursday, you can see the area of deeper (blue and purple colors) over Western Missouri. This is the area of low pressure which is deepening and strengthening as it moves Northeast into Iowa. The area to the right (East) of this low pressure is where you will find the warm front and associated severe weather threat. On Friday, the cold front will extend South of the low pressure area and will provide a mechanism for yet another severe weather episode.
Dewpoints are a measure of the moisture in the atmosphere in relation to temperatures. Moisture is a key in production of severe weather. You can see 60 and 65 degree dewpoints streaming North into the Lower Great Lakes. The area where the black and green colors collide is where the warm front is located. Along and South of the warm front is where the highest tornado threat exists.
Lift Indicies (LI's) are a measure of the amount of lift and instability in the atmosphere. Negative values are found across the Ohio Valley, and these will likely be slightly lower than what current models are forecasting.
Finally, you can see a strong jet moving through the Midwest and Ohio Valley (the green and yellows) which would only enhance the severe weather threat and increase the threat for damaging winds.
Severe Weather Update
Just a quick post this evening, but one thing everyone must remember when we are dealing with forecasting severe weather is that it is very difficult to pinpoint exactly what will happen with a severe weather episode until the day it is expected to occur due to so many variables that don't come together until the last minute. The mesoscale details of a storm cannot be fine-tuned until the day of, when we are able to see where front positions end up setting up, where outflow boundaries form, where shear and instability is the highest, etc.
Therefore, it remains nearly impossible to pinpoint what areas will see the most significant severe weather, but I still stand by my forecast that a major severe weather episode will be likely on Thursday and Friday across the Ohio Valley!
April 07, 2008
IndianaWeatherOnline.com Weather Alert
IndianaWeatherOnline.com Dangerous Severe Weather Alert
Issued by Brandon Redmond on April 7th, 2008 at 12:30 PM
Two rounds of severe weather are possible this week, with the second one being much worse than the first.
The first round of severe weather will arrive by late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Thunderstorms will develop across Missouri, Illinois and Kentucky and spread into Indiana and eventually Western Ohio. The storms will likely start out as supercells, but will eventually congeal into a squall line. The highest risk of severe weather before 8:00 PM will be west of Indianapolis, and those areas will also have the highest risk for tornadoes. After 8:00 PM, the squall line will likely overspread the entire area with a risk of damaging winds, isolated large hail and heavy rainfall.
While round one of the thunderstorms will pose a risk for severe weather, round number two on Thursday and Friday will be much much much more dangerous.
By Thursday and Friday, an extremely strong weather system will be located to our west, in fact it is forecasted to deepen (strengthen) to levels I personally cannot remember ever seeing. A widespread and dangerous, possibly record-breaking tornado outbreak will occur on Thursday and Friday from the Great Lakes all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. This storm in fact has numerous similarities as far as the track, strength and current weather pattern to the infamous April 3rd, 1974 tornado outbreak.
This system will bring several rounds of tornadic and severe thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley, beginning as early as Thursday Afternoon and continuing through Friday when the cold front will finally pass through the region. The third round of severe weather on Friday will likely be in the form of a very dangerous derecho (extremely intense squall line) that will be capable of producing winds in excess of 100 mph in some areas.
While I know that often times weather forecasts seem blown out of proportion and "hyped", I cannot express enough how dangerous this storm looks on Thursday and Friday. While a lot can change between now and then, all indications point towards a severe weather outbreak that will go down in the history books. Please, please, please monitor the weather forecasts during the next several days. I will be updating the site quite often, and in fact the site is already in severe weather mode. Also we have added a weather chatroom and you can discuss the storm on our forums at LetsTalkWeather.net
Jansen and myself will be doing live video updates all week to keep you all updated.
Stay tuned and stay safe
Issued by Brandon Redmond on April 7th, 2008 at 12:30 PM
Two rounds of severe weather are possible this week, with the second one being much worse than the first.
The first round of severe weather will arrive by late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Thunderstorms will develop across Missouri, Illinois and Kentucky and spread into Indiana and eventually Western Ohio. The storms will likely start out as supercells, but will eventually congeal into a squall line. The highest risk of severe weather before 8:00 PM will be west of Indianapolis, and those areas will also have the highest risk for tornadoes. After 8:00 PM, the squall line will likely overspread the entire area with a risk of damaging winds, isolated large hail and heavy rainfall.
While round one of the thunderstorms will pose a risk for severe weather, round number two on Thursday and Friday will be much much much more dangerous.
By Thursday and Friday, an extremely strong weather system will be located to our west, in fact it is forecasted to deepen (strengthen) to levels I personally cannot remember ever seeing. A widespread and dangerous, possibly record-breaking tornado outbreak will occur on Thursday and Friday from the Great Lakes all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. This storm in fact has numerous similarities as far as the track, strength and current weather pattern to the infamous April 3rd, 1974 tornado outbreak.
This system will bring several rounds of tornadic and severe thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley, beginning as early as Thursday Afternoon and continuing through Friday when the cold front will finally pass through the region. The third round of severe weather on Friday will likely be in the form of a very dangerous derecho (extremely intense squall line) that will be capable of producing winds in excess of 100 mph in some areas.
While I know that often times weather forecasts seem blown out of proportion and "hyped", I cannot express enough how dangerous this storm looks on Thursday and Friday. While a lot can change between now and then, all indications point towards a severe weather outbreak that will go down in the history books. Please, please, please monitor the weather forecasts during the next several days. I will be updating the site quite often, and in fact the site is already in severe weather mode. Also we have added a weather chatroom and you can discuss the storm on our forums at LetsTalkWeather.net
Jansen and myself will be doing live video updates all week to keep you all updated.
Stay tuned and stay safe
A Week To Remember
If you haven't picked up on the hints Jansen and myself have dropped over the past few days, I am going to spell it out for you, this will be a historical week of weather that many will remember for years to come.
From a raging blizzard stretching from Nebraska into the Dakota on Eastward to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, to a major and what will likely be a historical tornado outbreak from the Southern Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico, Thursday and Friday's storm will be one with major implications for half of the Nation.
The storm will develop on Wednesday in the Southern Plains and just as quickly as it develops, it will become a major powerhouse of storms, the storm of all storms, at least compared to anything we have seen in the past several years.
The storm will strengthen to below 990 MB which is considered a very major storm, and some of our models develop the low pressure much deeper than that. A low pressure system will be located near Northwestern Missouri/Northeastern Kansas by Thursday with a warm front layed out from Kansas City to Columbus, Ohio. Isolated tornadoes and supercells will develop by Thursday afternoon across the Ohio Valley, and any storm that becomes a right mover along the warm front will be capable of producing violent tornadoes.
The storm will continue into Friday, with possibly two more rounds of severe weather, including the possibility for an extensive squall line to develop along the cold front by Friday Afternoon.
So here in the Ohio Valley what can we expect? Well basically any and every type of severe weather, including extremely damaging winds, large hail and violent tornadoes. Heavy rain will also be possible and will only aggrivate the flooding situation.
Below is an image of the 00z UKMET from this morning, showing what would likely be a historical storm deepening to 983 MB in Southern Wisconsin.
April 05, 2008
This Week Compared to 1974
The storm system on Thursday & Friday looks pretty impressive to me if the models keep such a strong trough. The set up on the gfs looks like there could be a dry punch at mid levels. The big catch is its still very early in the game so things, the trough evolution still could change and lessen the threat. For fun compare the 132 hr forecast from the GFS with April 3, 1974. Not a perfect match but some similarities in that both show a strong trough with a potent low level jet.
Attached is a 4 panel image of the 1974 outbreak, and the other two are model images showing the possibility for Friday. Definitely some comparisons.
April 04, 2008
Next Week's Severe Weather Producer
The EURO and other operational models continue to show a well-developed low pressure system with an amplifying trough and almost a perfect severe weather set-up for a large part of the Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley. The storm will likely begin to affect the Western Portions of Indiana late Monday Night, but our main show should be on Tuesday.
Here are some images I drew up based on the EURO's depiction for early next week
Debris Ball On Radar Near Little Rock
While this necessarily doesn't have to do with the weather here in Indiana, it is extremely interesting. Last night, as many of you already know, a tornado touched down in parts of the Little Rock area. We were tracking the storms over at LetsTalkWeather.net and I noticed an interesting feature on doppler radar, called a debris ball.
The debris ball is a relatively new concept, and was discovered only less than 2 months ago when tornadoes ravished parts of Tennessee.
Last night's radar images showed a well defined debris ball in the Little Rock Metro area and I have hi-lited the region where it was indicated in the image below. A debris ball is a feature picked up on doppler radar when there is debris spinning in the air associated with a tornado on the ground.
April 02, 2008
Severe Weather Thursday, April 3rd
As many of you know, IndianaWeatherOnline.com's own forecaster Jansen Smith will be storm and tornado chasing tomorrow across parts of the Mississippi River Valley.
Jansen and I have been trying to pinpoint where the highest probability of severe weather will occur tomorrow and where he should target his chase. We have both decided we feel the highest risk of severe weather and tornados will be across Southern Missouri, Arkansas, Western Kentucky and Western Tennessee.
The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting severe weather to be more likely across Texas, but neither of us see this being the enhanced risk area. That is why we are forecasting a moderate risk of severe storms in the areas listed above.
Below is a graphic showing surface cape base tomorrow afternoon, and you can see sufficient levels of cape across Jansen's target area.
Also, you can see that helicity values are actually the highest out of anywhere in the severe storm risk tomorrow across Jansen's Target area.
Shear values are also quite high across Jansen's Severe Weather Risk area
Here are lift indicies for tomorrow, falling below zero across Jansen's chase area
Here is the simulated radar for tomorrow, showing the potential for supercellular development and lewps by late afternoon
A New Addition to IndianaWeatherOnline.com
IndianaWeatherOnline.com is pleased to announce the addition of Jansen Smith to the IndianaWeatherOnline.com Forecasting Staff. Jansen is currently a senior in high school and lives in Owensboro, Kentucky near the Indiana/Kentucky state line.
Jansen will be contributing to forecasts efforts for Southern Indiana and will be maintaining his own weather blog at www.IndianaWeatherOnline.com/JansensWeatherBlog
With an increase in viewers and email subscribers across Southern and Southwestern Indiana, Jansen will be an excellent additional resource to IndianaWeatherOnline.com. Jansen will help to keep all of you in the Southern half of Indiana and for that matter Northern Kentucky updated with the latest forecast information.
Following high school, Jansen will be majoring in meteorology in college.
To email Jansen or welcome him to the IndianaWeatherOnline.com staff, you can reach him via email at Jansen@IndianaWeatherOnline.com
March 30, 2008
Severe Weather Monday March 31st
Here are some images I put together, explaining out severe weather threat for tomorrow and tomorrow night.
March 29, 2008
Violent Severe Weather Outbreak Looming
A violent severe weather outbreak is looming for a large portion of the nation including the Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley. A strong low pressure system will develop and move into Iowa and Wisconsin by late Monday Night.
Initially a warm front will lift northward across the Oho Valley on Sunday Evening. Some elevated thunderstorms will likely develop along the warm front and some of those could become strong or severe by Sunday Evening and Sunday Night. The main threat with any thunderstorms on Sunday Evening and Sunday Night will be some isolated large hail and heavy rainfall. To our Southwest and West a major and violent tornado outbreak is possible across Missouri, Western Illinois, Arkansas and Oklahoma.
Current forecast guidance is pointing towards the violent severe weather outbreak contining on Monday Afternoon and Evening across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. The latest forecast guidance shows the low deepening and moving into Northern Wisconsin with a cold front trailing into Missouri by Monday Evening. That will leave all of Indiana and Western Ohio in the warm sector.
The Triple Point will pass over far Northern Indiana and that could enhance the tornado threat. Also with temperatures climbing into the 60's and lower 70's and dewpoints climbing to near 60, the storm system will have plenty of instability to work with. Large hail and tornadoes will be a threat with any discrete storms/supercells early Monday Evening. But as the upper-level winds strengthen, I feel that the storms will likely congeal into a MCS or squall line. The storms will still pack a punch Monday Night with damaging winds and if the updrafts in the squall line can continue to rotate, then hail and isolated tornadoes will continue to be a threat.
Finally, with PWATS over 1.25 inches, heavy rain is a distinct possibility and thus more flooding could occur. 2-4 inches of rain will be possible by Tuesday Morning.
For the IndianaWeatherOnline.com Severe Weather Outlooks, please visit the IndianaWeatherOnline.com Severe Storm Center.
March 27, 2008
Winter Storm Tonight?
Just when you think ol' man winter is finally letting go of his strong grasp on winter, we are looking at yet another winter weather event tonight and tomorrow.
Rain will change to sleet and snow across far Northern Indiana tonight and some accumualting snow is likely. The National Weather Service has issued a *Winter Weather Advisory* in effect for all of Northern Indiana tonight. Snow and sleet will be likely and could cause some slick roads by morning.
2-4 inches of snow is generally likely, with snow accumulations more likely on grassy surfaces.
More Heavy Rain/Thunderstorms Next Week
A stormy spring pattern is taking shape across the Ohio Valley. Heavy rain is likely tonight and some isolated strong thunderstorms are not out of the question. An inch to an inch and a half will be possible by tomorrow morning. This will only aggrivate the flooding situation and some additional minor flooding problems will be possible.
As colder air filters into the area by tomorrow morning, some sleet and light snow showers could mix in with any light rain that is still lingering across the area.
The main reason for this email though is to alert you all to the growing ominous potential for a sizeable severe weather outbreak and the possibility of a looming major flood event. Rain will be possible by Sunday Evening and will continue into Monday and Tuesday. As a strong low pressure system ejects Northeast into the Upper Ohio Valley, an episode of severe weather will be possible on Monday Night and into early Tuesday.
As much as three inches of rain could fall between Sunday and Tuesday and isolated higher amounts will be likely. In fact, our latest forecast guidance indicates the possibility of well over 5 inches of rain across a large portion of Indiana and Western Ohio.
March 26, 2008
Spring Outlook Maps
The Official IndianaWeatherOnline.com Spring Forecast
With Winter officially coming to an end, Spring will be welcomed with renewed heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. Warmer temperatures will arrive early next week with temperatures climbing above-normal on Sunday and Monday.
The main weather concern early next week will be the possibility of additional heavy rainfall. The first three months of this year have brought Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio over 200% more precipitation than normal, explaining why we are experiencing constant flooding problems. The soil remains 150% saturated and many streams and rivers remain in a flood stage.
Rain will likely begin Sunday Night and will continue into Monday and Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will likely exceed three inches by Tuesday, and the possibility is there for quite a bit more than that. Thunderstorms will also be possible on Monday and Tuesday and with above-normal temperatures and a strengthening weather system, some strong thunderstorms are not out of the question.
Looking ahead to the rest of the Spring weather season, it appears that our weather is going to continue to be influenced by the weather phenomena called La Niña. The term La Niña means that ocean temperatures in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of South America are colder than normal. This affects the weather across the United States in many ways, primarily by causing storms that form to be stronger. Here in the Ohio Valley, we typically experience much wetter Springs when the weather pattern is affected by La Niña, and that will almost definitely be the case this Spring.
With that in mind, flooding and over-saturated soils will continue to plague Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio through at least June.
So while the phrase "April showers bring May flowers" often is true in most Spring weather seasons, this year we will probably have to change that phrase to say "April showers bring more May flooding."
For more weather information, please visit www.IndianaWeatherOnline.com and www.LetsTalkWeather.net and you can hear my daily forecasts on Winchester's WZZY Star 98.3
March 25, 2008
Stormy Pattern
Yet another stormy pattern is looming. Storm systems are lining up across the Pacific.
The first storm will impact the region Wednesday Night through Friday. The storm will dig into the Ohio Valley and a warm front will stretch from Springfield, Missouri to Cleveland, Ohio. The exact placement of this low will divide the colder part of this system from the warm sector where heavy rain rain and strong thunderstorms will be possible. In fact, I am leaning toward the idea of a winter weather event for the Northern third of Indiana on Thursday Night and Friday. Simply amazing, stating that it is almost April! The rest of Indiana and all of West Central Ohio will experience warmer air and the potential for heavy rainfall. In fact, our latest model guidance points towards the possibility of 2-3 inches of rainfall. While I am not confident at this point on this aspect of the storm, strong and severe storms could be possible Thursday Afternoon.
Storm Number 2 will arrive here on the last day of the month. That storm system looks to be a widespread severe weather maker, but more on that later.
March 18, 2008
What A Storm!!
Just Take A Look At How Large This Storm Is! This is a picture via Google Earth showing just how large this storm is and how much precipitation is out there! JUST AMAZING!
Flooding Likely Tonight
Heavy rainfall is currently overspreading the state of Indiana and will continue to plague Indiana and Western Ohio through tomorrow night. Total rainfall accumulations could exceed 5 inches in some locations. With an already over-saturated ground, river and aereal flooding is likely tonight and tomorrow and flash flooding is not out of the realm of possibilities.
This is a dangerous situation. To our Southwest, portions of Southern Illinois and Southeastern Missouri have already experienced almost 12 inches of rain and are reporting record flooding. In fact we have gotten several reports of fatalities across the area.
Stay tuned to IndianaWeatherOnline.com and LetsTalkWeather.net